Enzio's Clock - Comments

Timing

Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:09:44 -0800

Question: Does that mean Swiss Franc and gold will go further down before they move up?

Swiss Franc

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 03:54:14 -0800

Bonjour!

In mid-September, I used dollars to purchase swiss francs and euros when I left the USA. Sell or hold?

Merci for your thoughts!

How to grade Emerging Market debts

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 17:59:19 -0800

Dear Rick,

Thank you for flagging this threat. I have no specific knowledge. For what it's worth, just check out the rating agencies' country ratings and assume that even if the agencies are lying, the relative position of each country is what counts: the more junky it is, the lower the rating. That is a fuzzy logic way of approaching this.

My hunch is that Africa and LatAm have to be at the bottom of totem pole, Eastern Europe is in the middle, and Asia is at the top.

Sorry that I have no more specific pointers.

Best investment wishes, Enzio

Eurozone exposure to emerging markets

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 05:45:17 -0800

Dear Enzio,

My understanding is that tiny Ecuador has missed it's bond payment and is in danger of defaulting on it's loans this coming Dec 15th. Although Ecuador is very tiny, it's one of many emerging markets that's experiencing problems due to deflationary forces (lower demand for oil, exports, etc)

It's my understanding that European banks have huge exposure to emerging markets and would sustain huge losses if emerging markets begin to defualt on their loans.

Do you have any thoughts on the European banks exposure to emerging markets and which countries are most vulnerable.

Thanks

Regarding news surfacing

Sat, 22 Nov 2008 22:00:38 -0800

Regarding news surfacing regarding the PRC's intention to up its gold reserve from 500t to 4000t, I am just curious if anyone can offer any reason why the PRC is announcing this before they have acquired the reserve. Do you think they have their sights on Western econ's assets rather than gold? Remember they were turned off last time in their bid to acquire Conoco? And was similarly turned back when they tried to acquire an oil project in Canada? Are they threatening with this annoucement in an attempt to get an upper hand?

Dear Heyduce,What useful

Sat, 15 Nov 2008 02:31:55 -0800

Dear Heyduce,

What useful commentary. Can you explain your first sentence more fully? I need to understand this. I understand that with margin calls, you have to unload over-leveraged positions. So you sell at a loss, and end up with scraps of cash. What I don't understand - most respectfully - is why this cash then must go into the dollar? Can you share your insights with us, please?

My reason for asking is that once I/we "get it", then it will be easier to identify when to start unloading dollars and what to move in to....

All the best, Enzio

The current run-up in the US

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 12:28:41 -0800

The current run-up in the US Dollar has been a result of margin calls forcing traders, hedge funds, and other institutions out of their over-leveraged positions and into cash. As this massive deleveraging finally runs out of momentum, look for all these investors to start looking for another place to put all that cash. Considering everything we now know, Gold and Swiss currency are very likely candidates. Perhaps a new "Gold bubble"?

Heyduce,Fully agreed. Best,

Tue, 28 Oct 2008 17:41:54 -0700

Heyduce,

Fully agreed. Best, Enzio

We are absolutely headed

Mon, 27 Oct 2008 08:25:04 -0700

We are absolutely headed into a $USD bubble. The dollar is on a parablolic move up at the same time the Federal Reserve is flooding the system with dollars. I think we may see a Gold spike/Dollar crash sometime soon.

Amen!

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 20:34:00 -0700

Amen!

LOL- Worth every penny!

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 08:28:27 -0700

LOL- Worth every penny!

Dear Sammyg123,How

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 02:33:31 -0700

Dear Sammyg123,

How encouraging of you. I'm usually 6 months early and certainly make mistakes, but am delighted that you find value in my work. Timing is not my strength; that is why, for my forthcoming fund, I am teaming up with an erstwhile colleague who is far better at timing.

Best of investing fortunes, and greetings from Hong Kong, Enzio

Cheers, Enzio

Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:01:29 -0700

I subscribed this time last year - and I'm so glad to have done so. Your strategies are excellent. I don't always agree with your timing, but thankfully you are mostly early. Great work! Very Respectfully, sammyg123

Dear Sammyg123,While America

Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:06:31 -0700

Dear Sammyg123,

While America uses economic sanctions - whether against the Latinos in the 1950s or against some members of the Muddle East and Caucuses today - I cannot see "...the rest of the world trying to make a raid on the Fed." OK: so the rest of the world kills the Fed: what then?

The dollar has been doomed from Day One, in 1971: today, you need 75% LESS yen or Deutschmarks/Euros to buy the dollar with. Reason: the Empire is running out of money...see what happened to Sterling....

So on a one year view, the dollar will tank yet again. I still believe in Gold and in the Swiss Franc which has taken a real back seat in the currency SUV...

Respectfully, Enzio

Dear Sammyg123,While America

Fri, 03 Oct 2008 08:47:58 -0700

Dear Sammyg123,

So on a one year view, the dollar will tank yet again. I still believe in Gold and in the Swiss Franc which has taken a real back seat in the currency SUV...

Respectfully, Enzio