Enzio's Clock - USA/Global: Two reasons to "short" financals - Comments

Hi Dr Dog- God, or Godot?

Enzio — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 18:26:15 +0800

Hi Dr Dog- God, or Godot?

Thank you for your perceptive and trenchant questions.

I hardly think that the Euro will replace the dollar soon as a reserve currency: as suggested in my book, the dollar assets market remains the deepest in the world: if my memory serves me, the dollar bond markets, for instance, are larger than all of the other combined. So my take is that the reserve currency chatter at the G20 was just a time-filler.

The dollar has been crashing since 1973 - when it floated. The Japanese and Swiss used to have pay four times as much for the dollar as they do now! Superpower currencies always are doomed to fail: the empire runs out of money due to extraordinary defence costs incurred to defend the realm, so more money is printed. Increase the supply of something and down goes its price...Sterling recovered only after Hong Kong was handed back to China in 1997, to cite a relevant example of a previous superpower currency.

The dollar will trade on a one-for-one basis with the Euro within five years. but I cannot see Europe's capital markets ever attaining the depth of America's, so the dollar stays a reserve currency. Having written this, Europe has created such a tax mess for itself that the Russian threat means that the Europe is the geopolitical vulnerability of our day, so the dollar will remains a currency of choice. Along with gold, of course.

Hope that this helps, and happy Easter from Hong Kong, Enzio

The New Reserve Currency ?

DrDog — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 04:14:14 +0800

Hello Enzio, an interesting topic that came out of the G20 meeting was the idea of a New Reserve Currency. 1. Is the Euro the Next Reserve Currency, if so, then when? 2. Is the Crash of the Dollar very near? How do you see the value of the Dollar and Euro compared to Gold and or Swiss Franc in a time line of 2, 5, 10 years? Thanks

Dr God

USA/Global: Two reasons to "short" financals

Enzio — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 09:42:06 +0800

Teaser:

Readers know of our wariness American and thus global markets - desp8te the 25% gain in the S&P 500 over the past month. This means that our more recent, short-term market "call" to buy markets is over with. Indeed, we have just updated our Economic Clock® : our unadulterated view is that the Economic Time® must keep worsening.

Indeed, that Economic Clock has heralded the US downturn since 2007, and this is why our advice has reaped substantial rewards for our subscribers - while the American market has plunged by 47% since the peak of October, 2007.

Today we look at how macro data specially are affecting the financial sector in two key ways - and how to make money off these paths.

Topics Covered:

More "excess supply of goods"
Effects on the financial sector
How to make money off this idea