Enzio's Clock - Metals: Climb in or climb out? - Comments

sorry for reverting so late,

Enzio — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:40:30 +0800

sorry for reverting so late, Shawn. Are you a hedgie, trade for your own account, or work for a large house?

location

roboyak — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:42:23 +0800

Hi Enzio,

I'm in San Francisco.

Cheers!

Thanks Shawn. I'll post my

Enzio — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:44:26 +0800

Thanks Shawn. I'll post my forthcoming appearances on teh website. Where are you located?

bloomberg

roboyak — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:45:14 +0800

Great to see you on bloomberg last night. I wish you were on more often.

Thanks!

sahwn

Yes, once the Fed hikes

Enzio — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:43:01 +0800

Yes, once the Fed hikes rates, pandemonium breaks loose as the costs of hedging dollars rises and everything gets turned upside-down for a short while...

thanks

roboyak — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:00:43 +0800

So then this would also mean that when the FED does finally decide to raise interest rates this would also compound the issue even more by causing people to buy their dollars back and cover their US$ carry trades.

From a strictly Technical Analysis viewpoint if the FED continues with its easy money policy for a bit longer it looks like the dollar index [DXY] has room to fall from it's current level of 75 to somewhere down around the 72 level before seeing a major reversal. This would leave a bit more upside for the US stock and commodity markets.

Shawn, thank you. I'm

Enzio — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:20:58 +0800

Shawn, thank you. I'm writing on this shortly. Cheers, Enzio

well said....

roboyak — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:40:40 +0800

ahh well said... I knew you would clarify things so eloquently!

It was even simpler than I thought.

Thank you!

shawn

Hi Shawn,Thank you for your

Enzio — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:55:35 +0800

Hi Shawn,

Thank you for your compliments.

As risks rise, so does the VIX. So people start getting scared. All of a sudden, those safe dollar carry trades don't look so smart. So they sell their non-$ assets and buy the dollar back in order to repay the bank. It is the buying back of the dollars that drives it up, that causes its reversal.

Cheers, Enzio

massive dollar reversal

roboyak — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:15:30 +0800

Hi Enzio,

Can you explain to me the mechanics of what it takes to induce the massive dollar reversal you talk about on CNBC Asia. I've learned so much from you on how the global ecomony functions over the past 2 years.

Is it that a flight to saftey will cause assets to be sold, i.e. houses, stocks, corporate bonds, commodities and will be exchanged for US dollars as a safe haven. Coupled with an inablity to print more money. Or does it happen some other way???

Thanks!

shawn

Metals: Climb in or climb out?

Enzio — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 20:10:53 +0800

Intro-Teaser: We recently provided you with our fundamental view of what to do. Today, we polish these thoughts. but we keep gold and oil out of our thinking. Gold is "the" psychological asset of choice, and oil is driven very much by the politics of OPEC and of the Muddle East, as we all know.

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How to save money off this idea