Enzio's Clock - USA & Thus Global: Three triggers & a funeral - Comments

Fabelhaft. Zufriedene

Enzio — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 18:56:25 +0800

Fabelhaft. Zufriedene Abonnenten habe ich gerne! Und danke fuer Ihr Geschaeft!

Nach meiner Rueckkehr aus Amerika habe ich mein Abi in Hamburg und mein VWL Studium in Freiburg i. Br. absolviert.

Gruss aus Asien, EvP

Herr Dr von Pfeil, Thank

yelili — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 05:55:24 +0800

Herr Dr von Pfeil, Thank you for your response. It corresponds with how gold has reacted when governments like the UK have sold large amounts of gold and the gold price has only continued to go up. But thank you for your view which confirms my suspicion of how gold will react this time. And, yes, I am a subscriber! yelili

Dear Sir/Madame,If the IMF

Enzio — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 13:29:47 +0800

Dear Sir/Madame,

If the IMF does sell, then buy more gold. I just think that with stagflation staring us in the face, and with the dollar continuing to fall, that precious metals such as gold will remain the "currency" of choice - that is, until The Economic Clock starts showing more encouraging signs again. Which it will.

Are you a subscriber yet? Hoping to welcome you as one soon, und

Mit freundlichem Gruss, Enzio von Pfeil

Dear Sammyg123,It's all

Enzio — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 13:23:03 +0800

Dear Sammyg123,

It's all about articulating a view clearly so that you, the subscriber, can make your own decisions based on common sense!

Where are you based, may I ask?

Cheers, Enzio

Josh, all most helpful and

Enzio — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 13:20:59 +0800

Josh, all most helpful and encouraging.

I got into SDS at 52, and then piled back in big time at 72, so let's see!

Best, Enzio

Herr Dr von Pfeil, can you

yelili — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 17:51:22 +0800

Herr Dr von Pfeil, can you please share your thoughts on the near- and mid-term outlook for gold based on US Treasury Under Secretary McCormick's announcement that the US backs a sale of 8% or 12.9m ounces of the IMF's gold if the IMF reforms such as cost-cutting and increasing focus on currency reforms/revaluations. I'm a long-term bull but would like to identify good additional entry points into gold. MfG, Yelili

Hi Enzio, I am on board with

sammyg123 — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 13:45:10 +0800

Hi Enzio, I am on board with the above comment about how your service helps my thinking. I use the clock so that I don't fall victim to my own biases, as they are influenced by the US financial media's propaganda machine. The clock helps me gauge how all economies are trying to produce wealth. I can see which governments are getting it right with the clock, and more importantly, which one's aren't. The mistakes that are made by central banks, due to the fact that hteir tools are limited essentially to printing money or reducing the money supply temporarily, lead to market inefficiences that play out over time. I call these inefficiencies "investment opportunities," and they are very difficult to perceive without the clock. I use ETF's to articulate my positions and have set up my own personal heldge fund, using the clock as my main source of information and basically ignore the financial press unless I am looking for a very specific piece of information that perchance they might have. Wihtout the clock, it would be very difficiult for me to get a good macro picture, which is crucial for investment success, in my opinion. I take profits and invest in other areas as they become opportune, as I am a firm believer in non-dogmatism. As the clock changes, and those changes are registered to excess in my positions, I move out and on to new opportunites, or I will strengthen already good positions if there is a good chance they will move with me. For example, you suggested the Australian dollar recently, which I owned by luck alerady. Well, I added substantially to that position recently when I took profits from my short position on the day that Societe General announced it'ts trading disaster. I am by no means objective, but Ithe clock helps me get closer to objectivity. For that, I am extremely grateful and will remain your loyal subscriber. Very Respectfully, sammyg123

I was originally attracted

jegardne — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 03:29:02 +0800

I was originally attracted to the concept of waiting for the US market to crack and then investing in Asian growth (flight to the city?). But I have broadened my interest in your clock. <>Where am I adding specific value to your thinking?<> I need to learn more about monetary systems. You are providing this education at the moment in terms of availability of money and goods. The overall value to my thinking is in your clarity. The organization of your individual articles is excellent: points/theory/thesis/anti-thesis/context --- then a specific statement: How to make/save money off this idea. <>What are you actually paying for?<> Your use of metaphor is delightful. You live outside the U.S. media bubble, I do not. I am paying to watch the clock tick. I guess. I am paying for both the general (clock) and the occasional particular (names, names, names). For example, I am considering investing using ETFs to short falling sectors, and use ETFs _weighted_ with individual stocks in rising sectors depending on your clock. So, if you presented this particular formula explicitly, ETFs weighted with stock, I’d like it. However, I am able to derive this information, sector ETF plus weight, for your present articles, clock and my research. For instance, buying SDS:US and then shorting some credit card holding banks is an example. (I don’t sort individual stocks. So, the example is the inverse. ) So, I fiddle while Rome burns and wait to rebuild. Hope you find this helpful. Josh

hi Van,I still hope to get

Enzio — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 13:04:30 +0800

hi Van,

I still hope to get your feedback per my previous email, please!

In response

In the near term, on a one year view, either global supply shoots up or global demand shoots down. The former won't happen because of politics (OPEC) and stupidity (SA's Eskom). The latter won't happen because China and India must keep growing.
Congress wanted the dollar down, and Chin. and In. cits wanted growth up.
Cost push is the "flation" bit: inflation rises due to higher input costs. With growth slowing, we get the "stag"
Strong currencies benefit most from a weak dollar as they pay units of foreign currency, e.g. Euros, per unit of commodity or dollar-based import
Not really. Yes commodities are more attractive to the non-dollar buyer, due to response 4. But point 1 is what really would drive commodity prices down.

Van, I need your feedback on where my SPECIFIC value-added exists for you, i.,e. why you are paying me..

Thanks E

Dear Enzio, I have a few

vanzell — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 03:00:21 +0800

Dear Enzio, I have a few questions: What could reverse the cost-push inflation globally? What was the initial trigger (is it the weak dollar filtering through commodity prices) for that cost-push inflation? How does cost-push inflation relate to stagflation? Who benefits the most (governments, commercial interests) from the weak dollar? Is there a potential bearish risk for commodities if there is to be a coordinated dollar supportive intervention? Thank you kindly, Regards Van

Dear John, Perceptive

Enzio — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 18:11:26 +0800

Dear John,

Perceptive comment. No, even if they are bailed out by stealth, I do not. I still feel that the other four differences - e.g. the international dimension, analysts' quixotic claim that corporate earnings must rise by 15% this year - outweigh the bail-out by stealth. Besides, in the S&L crises, the U.S. taxpayer had to cough up. This time, the banks etc. being bailed out have to re-pay!

I forgot to thank you for your subscription!

Please give me feedback: where am I specifically adding value to your investment process? What do you want me to produce more of/emphasise more, please?

Thanks for your support,

Enzio

Dear Enzio If, as the

John Wyse — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 17:54:55 +0800

Dear Enzio If, as the articles Sammy123 mentions implies, the US government is in fact bailing out the banks by stealth, I wonder if you see this strategy as potentially supportive of the market (as the bailouts apparently were in the case of the S&L crisis)? Or is it futile this time around, in line with your overall view that a credit crunch of this nature inevitably needs time – a lot of time – to work itself out? Regards John Wyse

Dear Sammg123,thanks for

Enzio — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 16:19:49 +0800

Dear Sammg123,

thanks for your useful comments. I could not agree more about cost-push inflation. I look forward to reading those articles which you mentioned!

Help me out: where am I adding specific value to your thinking, please? What are you actually paying for? I need feedback in order to improve my offering!

Thanks Enzio

The issue of cost push

sammyg123 — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 00:08:04 +0800

The issue of cost push inflation comes to mind as a result of the US Fed's relaxed monetary policy. This is a serious issue that seems to suggest that commodities prices will continue to increase as billions of dollars wielded by sovereign wealth funds are trade for real assets. Who cares to own dollars if you can buy wheat, metal, gold, etc. and use them to feed your people, speculate, or just accumulate wealth in its other forms? I agree with the short recommendation, but I suspect that the downward movement will not be sudden, but rather a gradual grind lower. The markets aren't in panic mode, but when panic occurs, it might serve to lighten up short positions to reacquire them when the market starts grasping for bailout straws such as Ambac or MBIA salvage plans. This cost push inflation is a global phenomenon, and central banks that don't increase rates during this time will find themselves victim of this almost intractable problem. Note that Australia's central bank is tightening it's monetary policy, and they are one of the few nations that are doing so. I remain long the Aussie dollar and suggest that it's strength against all other currencies is likely to remain as long as the central bank continues in its current posture. As for government bailouts, there is a good article on portfolio.com about how the US government is bailing out banks through both the Fed's "windows" and through other semi-official government banks with very easy interbank lending policies. The bailout is occuring, actually. Have a look at www.etfdigest.com, with Thursday's artcle entitled "Stealth?" It's a fine article that sheds some lights on how to bailout banks without looking like it. Respectfully, sammyg123

USA & Thus Global: Three triggers & a funeral

Enzio — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 12:21:15 +0800

Teaser:

With a trifling of Schadenfreude we are happy to see that the S&P 500 has tumbled by 13.5% from its peak of 1,565 on 9th October 2007. But we have to warn you that the index is only one third of the way down to where it will bottom. Our more recent work on the nasty effects of credit recessions taught us that when private-sector banks tighten, their mindsets are totally different to when Central Banks tighten. The former are pursuing profits; the latter are pursuing policy. And we do not trust Friday's market rally: it was based on the rumoured bail-out of America's second largest bond-insurer, Ambac. Today we want to delve more deeply into this what will trigger the next market down leg. We also suggest why U.S. stock markets rose (!) during her Savings & Loan crises of the late 1980s - mid-1990s - but that this false parallel is commercially misleading.

Topics Covered:

Trigger 1: Monoline downgrades or disposals
Trigger 2: Earnings downgrades
Trigger 3: Non-US bank crashes
The S&L false parallel
How to make money off this idea