Enzio's Clock - Stagflation: Stock markets & inflation - III - Comments

JDuce and Van, Agreed on all

sammyg123 — Sat, 24 May 2008 23:41:00 +0800

JDuce and Van,

Agreed on all counts. So far, FXA has also done well as a proxy for the Aussie dollar, and I think this bodes well for Aussie stocks, as well. One thing to factor in here is what the NASDAQ will due during the presidential election. Is it possible that rate cuts will start to manifest positive effect around the presidential election? As for "the real economy hitting banks' profits," it seems they two are strangling each other, with each having a detriment on its counterpart. Enzio, if my assessment regarding banks and the real economy is essentially correct, what will break the deadlock between banks and the real economy?

Hi J Duce and Van,Agreed.

Enzio — Tue, 20 May 2008 19:15:13 +0800

Hi J Duce and Van,

Agreed. I'll re-enter the shorts in late August, as September is seasonally the lowest month on the US stock market...

I think that the trigger is when the real economy starts hitting banks' profits...

Indeed, the inflation push

Enzio — Tue, 20 May 2008 19:10:42 +0800

Indeed, the inflation push is of cost-push nature stemming very much from commodities, metals included - like we have seen during the last four Rounds that I sought to glean "pattern predictions" off.

Thanks for your interest, Enzio

Thank you, VanLooks like we

Enzio — Tue, 20 May 2008 19:09:26 +0800

Thank you, Van

Looks like we independent economists are ahead of the curve when compared to the chief economists at big houses: they are running positions that depend, inter alia, on their economists NOT calling for recession, stagflation, inflation or any of this stuff....

Hi Ota,try the ADRs: go to

Enzio — Tue, 20 May 2008 19:08:10 +0800

Hi Ota,

try the ADRs: go to the free Bloomberg and type in the stock's name under "symbol look up" in the upper middle part of the screen.

heyduce, This is really

vanzell — Tue, 20 May 2008 09:36:12 +0800

heyduce,

This is really funny, I have exactly the same take. I also think that the big down wave (this time triggered by the real economy) hasn't hit yet and while it is possible that it doesn't hit I find it unlikely. It is also possible that it may morph into a lingering and protracted trading range on a relatively low volume. If commodities implode (which I think it is very likely, especially for energy) this would probably lift US stocks as the nearest possible parking space for assets coming from the dollar short/energy long carry trade.

Kind regards from sunny Singapore,

Van

SDS,SKF, short term profits

heyduce — Tue, 20 May 2008 06:28:53 +0800

SDS,SKF, short term profits ahead.

I too, am a fan of Volcker.

I just opened new positions in SDS and SKF.
Rationale-
The $VIX is buried on every timeframe, red alert of impending selloff.
The $SPX is overbought, and has been rising on declining volume. Soon, there will be no more buyers. May is upon us, many will be selling and going away.

I would also like to suggest EWA:US, iShares MSCI Index fund tracking Australia. As of today, it has a yield of 4.2%.

Cheers, JDuce

also do you know how USA

ota — Mon, 19 May 2008 23:16:08 +0800

also do you know how USA clients can buy Hong Kong shares?

Does the inflation-deflation

ota — Mon, 19 May 2008 23:14:53 +0800

Does the inflation-deflation war spin around oil,gold or food or all?

Interesting.

vanzell — Mon, 19 May 2008 20:48:55 +0800

Interesting.

Stagflation: Stock markets & inflation - III

Enzio — Mon, 19 May 2008 16:40:02 +0800

Intro-Teaser:

Today we add numerous macro as well as commodity recommendations to our list. We also tell you why we are withdrawing some previous recommendations. Subscribers, see Part 3 of today's missive.

On a recent Bloomberg screen we read:

"May 16 (Bloomberg) -- The world's most powerful central banks are telegraphing the end of interest-rate cuts, and traders already anticipate the first steps in the opposite direction.

Topics Covered:

Stock markets & inflation
Why commodities?
How to make money off these ideas