Enzio's Clock - Public Appearance - Comments

Dear Dr Dog,as a follow-up,

Enzio — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:55:36 +0800

Dear Dr Dog,

as a follow-up, my view that America does not want an all-out brawl in the Muddle East is - perhaps? - vindicated by Tuesday's news: the Dept of State is sending its third most important person to Switzerland to negotiate... quite about what, we won't know. But as Churchill said, "jaw, jaw, jaw is better than war, war, war"

That uncertainty, however, will keep oil firm, along of course with demand from the Third World.

Over and out, Enzio

Hi Dr. Dog (ever thought of

Enzio — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:38:26 +0800

Hi Dr. Dog (ever thought of reversing Dog to God? just a feeble joke)

Let me be singularly unimaginative. I am not plugged-in anymore, so let me try to put myself back into the heads of trigger pullers.

No war a la Afghanistan or Iraq: US gov't cannot afford this financially.

But, expect continued skirmishes between Israel and Iran - both sides shouting and glaring and blazing away, but no overt attack.

I'm sticking with my oil ETF: I cannot imagine any trigger puller really wanting peace in the Muddle East, can you? Do you think that the sales boys at the Farnborough air show, when selling F-16s, were telling their clients "sure hope that the Muddle East settles"?

War with Iran Imminent?

DrDog — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 00:41:18 +0800

Hello Enzio,

With respect to news of "Oil breaks new record above $147 a barrel after Iran test-fired missiles;" I would like to know your thoughts and thoughts of others if War with Iran is imminent? Thanks.

Pseudo translation from freetranslation.com

robert vibat — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:20:54 +0800

Herein, I have used the free translation service at freetranslation.com to attempt to translate German into English. My apologies for not knowing any German, and for any inaccuracies.

WORLDWIDE

Does the beginning of the end begin now?

· Yes, investors finally seem recognized the range of the American stagflation · Thereto comes that this youthful enthusiasm by "decoupling" of the single economies as well as the single markets finally an end has come into being. It is also that the trade within the majority of banks permits its economists and strategists now to make the economy and therefore the market suffers: now the own trade has "shorted" constructed large positions and wants to see money, which will be more by more far market break-ins the case. Are you entirely certain that the "decoupling" exists doesn't exist? · If with this meant becomes, that China and India lively towards the top climb, also if the gigantic American market falls – then the decoupling theory is unambiguously dead: for the 9th of October last year America fell around nearly 19%, for that China around 49% and India about 34%! · If to be sure by a decoupling of different plant categories spoken becomes, stimmme I that to: our "economy clock fund" Portfolios vollgespickt with currencies (except the dollar!) are, and with raw materials. Therefore we are around approximately 27% annually.

ASIA They said just now that China itself yet not of the amerikan. Market decoupled has. However China increased yesterday although the other Asian markets of break-ins suffered. What do you mean to this? · I have thought that the Regulatoren China stick behind this short-term market climb; it have for long time tried to press the market towards the top. · Also I can agree if single investors mean, the market would be strongly undervalues. To be sure I fear further social unrest within China: increasing groceries prices as well as gasoline prices press is grumbled the income, therefore. Now there are social unrest because the population is excited over the treatment of a murder trap, and today lessen comes we once again of social unrest in the Mongolia thereto, that the Regulatoren to know claim, where the market "should" go: try it when old communists to put through, capitalism on dictation. How of Hayek taught: that only sloping can go! · Consequently I look at that today movement towards the top as a short phenomenonTo set capital inspection further China just now introduced, around the capital influx an end. Your opinion to this? · Ineffectually. · The currency supervision ("SAFE") more exactly will examine from the 14th of July the books of the exporters around to assess whether they cheat and exchange too much at strange money in RMB in order to profit from the currency strength. Within a year, the RMB is nevertheless nearly 11% against the dollar angeklettert. · The authorities naturally want to dam the money influx especially since China was valued it currency reserves in May with US$1,8 trillion. · Sooner they should do two kinds: 1. the money drain ease, and2. Yet more sterilizing, i.e. the money influx equally again by means of Emittierung of short-term country paper absorb.

Dear Dr. Rappaport,Thank you

Enzio — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:00:34 +0800

Dear Dr. Rappaport,

Thank you for your contribution. This is the first time that I have seen your query: apologies.

Your contribution does not change my outlook in the short run - witness the last three words in said article!

I am not an oil expert in the least - gosh, I don't even drive! But I have read that between discovering, drilling and refining it takes a long time to increase the supply. Meanwhile, senseless wars will keep raging in the Muddle East, and growth in China and India must continue.

In the long run, oil will be as relevant to world politics as rickshaws are to Hong Kong's traffic today. But for the forseeable future, I am afraid that the factors that I just mentioned will retain an upper hand.

Greetings from Hong Kong,

Enzio von Pfeil

Dear Sir,Thank you for your

Enzio — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:55:36 +0800

Dear Sir,

Thank you for your sharp question. It boils down to three things:

supply shortages
strong growth in the "emerging" markets like China and India, and
thus, cost-push inflation

My earlier piece may interest you. With best wishes, Enzio von Pfeil

How do you reconcile

benwelld — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 16:09:25 +0800

How do you reconcile investing in commodities - food, metals, oil, etc. - when the world is facing a slowdown?

thanks

Just in case my other email

ota — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 12:42:47 +0800

Just in case my other email doesn't reach you I wondered if this will change your outlook at all.

Thank you very much,

Bruce Rappaport

February 13, 08 Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x

America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant.

In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel.

It was not until 2007, when EOG Resources of Texas started a frenzy when they drilled a single well in Parshal N.D. that is expected to yield 700,000 barrels of oil that real excitement and money started to flow in North Dakota. Marathon Oil is investing $1.5 billion and drilling 300 new wells in what is expected to be one of the greatest booms in Oil discovery since Oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938.

The US imported about 14 million barrels of Oil per day in 2007 , which means US consumers sent about $340 Billion Dollars over seas building palaces in Dubai and propping up unfriendly regimes around the World, if 200 billion barrels of oil at $90 a barrel are recovered in the high plains the added wealth to the US economy would be $18 Trillion Dollars which would go a long way in stabilizing the US trade deficit and could cut the cost of oil in half in the long run.

Enzio, I watched your CNBC

vanzell — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 07:44:05 +0800

Enzio,

I watched your CNBC appearance. I found it very informative and insightful. I noted that you are relatively bullish on commodities and have the following question as a result:

Do you expect that hard landing for China is now more likely as a result of an overreaction (rate hikes, RMB strength, higher bank reserve requirements and now new labor laws kicking in) to their inflation problems coupled with US/EU slowdown?

Kind regards,

Van