Enzio's Clock - Random Thoughts® - Comments

Shorting 20-year+ Treasury Bondsca

John Wyse — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 14:43:42 +0800

Dear Enzio

This is almost certainly a naive enquiry, but I'm puzzled to see you - alongside shorting the overall US market and its financial sector - also shorting long duration treasury bonds. I'd have thought that to short the market and financials implies a deflationary outlook (excess demand for money) but that to short treasuries implies the opposite (rising interest rates and hence inflationary expectations).

Please forgive me if I've totally missed the point here, but my query was prompted by reading the views of another analyst with a bearish outlook, Hugh Hendry, the manager of the Eclectica Fund, writing in his June report: http://www.greenlightadvisor.com/glablog/2009/06/18/hugh-hendry-june-2009-letter

His favourite asset class is, he says, long duration treasuries. And he's also taking a modest punt on 'out of the money CALL options on the US Treasury bond'.

Agreed,Toby, but I guess

Enzio — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 15:10:39 +0800

Agreed,Toby, but I guess that the nature of the trigger reveals the nature of the gravity of the shot: a spit in the pan (some stupid economic data point) does not equal the gravity of people losing their heads over the U.S. government having gone broke, I would suggest.

Who cares who or what will pull the trigger to cause the crash

Toby Heale — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:52:11 +0800

Who cares who or what will pull the trigger to cause the crash. The bomb is complete. All the ingredients have been assembled for a market bomb. If we are agreed that is the case, then do not be amongst those who gather around to gape. They will be destroyed. You know proximity is dangerous. Don't be there. Survivors never look stupid.
But you are right. The difference between a dollar bill and a wooden nickel is only in the processing.

Yen Trading Band Against the Greenback

yelili — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 18:14:49 +0800

Enzio, what do you think of the yen's recent depreciation against the US$? The news media says this is due to the truly terrible export and other data out of Japan these past 2 weeks. Meanwhile, I know that exporters were hoping that the BoJ would intervene to bring the yen down so that monies offshore could be repatriated back to Japan at more favorable rates helping to window-dress end of year 2008 results as books are closed on 31 March.

1) So what is the cause of the yen's fall? BoJ intervention? Reaction to awful data?

2) Will the yen recover post 31 March?

3) Where do you see the yen trading against the US$ from now until the end of 2009?

4) As I am GBPound based, where do you think it wisest to preserve wealth? Gold? US$? Yen? or the Atlantic peso?

Many thanks in advance. Always enjoy reading your commentary. Yelili

Hi Jose,Thank you for

Admin — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:42:16 +0800

Hi Jose,

Thank you for feedback!

Currently, We are re-vamping the website and that your idea will be included in any changes.

Jack

Dear Jose,Thank you for your

Enzio — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 11:03:03 +0800

Dear Jose,

Thank you for your constructive feed back.Of course I am concerned about cross-posting: do you, perhaps, have a sensible "and and" for us, i.e. that you can print the things out but that they cannot be cross-posted/

Also, let me see what my web master can arrange so that we all win, all right?

Looking forward to your solution, Enzio

Dr Enzio- Can you have your

heyduce — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 02:12:31 +0800

Dr Enzio- Can you have your IT people undo whatever it is they have done that prevents us from printing the text from your posts? I used to print some of them and review them with a highlighting pen to help things "sink in". I wrote an email to IT about this, but never got a resonse.
I understand their desire to protect your content from cross-posting, but I feel that the restriction diminishes its value somewhat. Thanks for your very useful work,
Jose Duce

It appears to be a little

Enzio — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 19:41:42 +0800

It appears to be a little pricier than my China short recommendation, FXP:US, but I'm still happier with the "cheer(?) leader", my short on the U.S. market, SDS:US

Having said that, thanks for pointing out EEV:US to all of us!

Happy Christmas from Hong Kong, Enzio

fxp

mccurd — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 01:22:13 +0800

Do you see value in the EEV?