Enzio's Clock - Market Time Report - Comments

Well put. I might put as a

Enzio — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 22:30:06 +0800

Well put. I might put as a synonym: hush money... Equally unpleasant, no? I cannot see the fog lifting on certain insurers who got bailed-out, can you?

Occam's razor

redduncan — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 11:11:17 +0800

Democrats have a difficult election coming up and have been having a hard time fund raising. Making their current fund raising situation problematic. This is simply a shake-down for protection money.

Not a very pleasant thought but plausible.

sorry for reverting so late,

Enzio — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:40:30 +0800

sorry for reverting so late, Shawn. Are you a hedgie, trade for your own account, or work for a large house?

location

roboyak — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:42:23 +0800

Hi Enzio,

I'm in San Francisco.

Cheers!

Thanks Shawn. I'll post my

Enzio — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:44:26 +0800

Thanks Shawn. I'll post my forthcoming appearances on teh website. Where are you located?

I like your very clear

Enzio — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:59:43 +0800

I like your very clear thinking, with which I agree on a six month view. But, I still think that there will be a dollar bounce that is divorced from the Fed's intentions. At the week end I will outline my thinking, all right.

Thank you for your patronage, Enzio

Going Long the US Dollar

thinking23 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:57:54 +0800

The US dollar index turned down again today.Rising gold and the Fed poledge to keep interest rates near zero, probably into next year, was the main reason why. This will keep downward pressure on the dollar in the months ahead, especially with the dollar's bearish fundamentals.

I sold my euros for dollars (147.45) two days ago, and since then, I am wondering why I did. The euro continues to soar (148.71) and my dollars continue to loose money.

Have you changed your mind about going long the dollar since the Fed's decision? I can't see anything that will make this market fall. The Fed wants the market high and the dollar low.

bloomberg

roboyak — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:45:14 +0800

Great to see you on bloomberg last night. I wish you were on more often.

Thanks!

sahwn

Yes, once the Fed hikes

Enzio — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:43:01 +0800

Yes, once the Fed hikes rates, pandemonium breaks loose as the costs of hedging dollars rises and everything gets turned upside-down for a short while...

thanks

roboyak — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:00:43 +0800

So then this would also mean that when the FED does finally decide to raise interest rates this would also compound the issue even more by causing people to buy their dollars back and cover their US$ carry trades.

From a strictly Technical Analysis viewpoint if the FED continues with its easy money policy for a bit longer it looks like the dollar index [DXY] has room to fall from it's current level of 75 to somewhere down around the 72 level before seeing a major reversal. This would leave a bit more upside for the US stock and commodity markets.

Shawn, thank you. I'm

Enzio — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:20:58 +0800

Shawn, thank you. I'm writing on this shortly. Cheers, Enzio

well said....

roboyak — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:40:40 +0800

ahh well said... I knew you would clarify things so eloquently!

It was even simpler than I thought.

Thank you!

shawn

Hi Shawn,Thank you for your

Enzio — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:55:35 +0800

Hi Shawn,

Thank you for your compliments.

As risks rise, so does the VIX. So people start getting scared. All of a sudden, those safe dollar carry trades don't look so smart. So they sell their non-$ assets and buy the dollar back in order to repay the bank. It is the buying back of the dollars that drives it up, that causes its reversal.

Cheers, Enzio

massive dollar reversal

roboyak — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:15:30 +0800

Hi Enzio,

Can you explain to me the mechanics of what it takes to induce the massive dollar reversal you talk about on CNBC Asia. I've learned so much from you on how the global ecomony functions over the past 2 years.

Is it that a flight to saftey will cause assets to be sold, i.e. houses, stocks, corporate bonds, commodities and will be exchanged for US dollars as a safe haven. Coupled with an inablity to print more money. Or does it happen some other way???

Thanks!

shawn

Dear John, thank you for

Enzio — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 15:36:16 +0800

Dear John, thank you for your trenchant question. My answer is "yes" both times:

if there is another market crash (perhaps this October?), people temporarily will flock to Treasuries as a safe haven, but
Once the crash has subsided, people will exit Treasuries precisely because the Fed is debasing the currency by virtue of creating an excess supply thereof.

As I am not a trader, I am not taking a position on answer one above; my longer-term thinking has put me into TBT:US by way of shorting the 20 year Treasury bond.

Thank you for your interest, and with best wishes from Hong Kong,

Enzio