US/Global: Short-term market outlook
Summary
With recent market strength having dented our performance a little since the 10/07 crash, we give you a quick update on what will happen over the next couple of weeks. We want to go back stage on the Obama stimulus journey just to give you a couple of markers, particularly for our non-US subscribers.
Crucially, if you want me to share more of my short-term thoughts with you, on markets and on individual ETFs, please respond via our Comments! I am happy to oblige you.
Topics Covered
- What is about to happen
- Likely market response
- How to make quick money off this
Background
1. What is about to happen
Pres. Obama is fighting valiantly. According to our local South China Morning Post of today,here are three markers on the journey to signing a stimulus package on the Hill:
- tomorrow, Monday, the Administration announces how it will the final $350 billion of Pres. Bush's old stimulus package
- the Senate "will" sign its stimulus package this Tuesday.
- once this happens, then the Senate's version and that of the House have to be reconciled "in conference". Nobody knows when this will happen,but
- when it does, Pres. Obama will sign his $827 billion stimulus package. Then it gets implemented - and that won't be immediate, either.
2. Likely market response
Given last week's market behaviour, my guess is that markets will rise strongly once Obama has signed. But given my doubts about its effectiveness, and my basic view that markets are like fish flopping around on a hot cement sidewalk,
3. How to Make Money Off This Idea
- Always consult your financial adviser first.
- Go long of your favourite markets. You know which ETFs you like; I am just giving you a short-term directional play.
